The Missing Billionaires
经济学人年度最佳图书
- 4 min read
A Guide to Better Financial Decisions
内容简介 · · · · · ·
“赚钱并保住钱”—— 《华尔街日报》
在过去的一个世纪里，如果最富有的家庭能合理地花掉他们财富的一部分，缴纳税款，投资股市，并将财富传给下一代，那么今天就会有成千上万的亿万富翁继承世代相传的财富。《消失的亿万富翁》的谜题是，为什么你在任何当前的富豪榜上都找不到这样的亿万富翁。有很多解释，但这本书关注的是对所有投资者都至关重要的一个错误：糟糕的风险决策，无论是在投资还是消费方面。这些家庭中的许多人并没有选择糟糕的投资——他们没有正确确定投资规模——并让他们的消费决策放大了这个错误。
《消失的亿万富翁》一书提供了一个简单而强大的框架，可帮助您以系统而理性的方式做出重要的人生财务决策。本书面向具有基础金融知识水平的读者，但不需要博士学位。它填补了个人理财书籍和学术文献之间的空白，为非专业人士带来了学术金融的宝贵见解。
第一部分从基本原理出发，构建了最佳投资规模理论，从押注偏向性硬币开始。第二部分涵盖了一生的财务决策，重点是投资、储蓄和支出决策的整合。第三部分涵盖了实际实施细节，包括如何校准个人风险规避水平，以及如何估计广泛投资的预期回报和风险。
本书充满了案例研究和轶事，其中包括维克多与 LTCM 合作投资的案例，以及关于《说谎者的扑克牌》的附加章节。作者广泛借鉴了他们作为 Elm Wealth（一家价值数十亿美元的财富管理公司）负责人的亲身经历，以及在此之前他们作为套利交易员的多年经历——维克多在 Salomon Brothers 和 LTCM 工作，詹姆斯在 Nationsbank/CRT 和 Citadel 工作。
无论您是年轻且正在积累财富，还是对自己的企业进行大量投资的企业家，或者正处于主要关注投资和消费的阶段，《失踪的亿万富翁：更好的财务决策指南》都是您进行深思熟虑的财务决策的必备资源。
“Making Money and Keeping It” – The Wall Street Journal
Over the past century, if the wealthiest families had spent a reasonable fraction of their wealth, paid taxes, invested in the stock market, and passed their wealth down to the next generation, there would be tens of thousands of billionaire heirs to generations-old fortunes today. The puzzle of The Missing Billionaires is why you cannot find one such billionaire on any current rich list. There are a number of explanations, but this book is focused on one mistake which is of profound importance to all investors: poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of these families didn’t choose bad investments– they sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake.
The Missing Billionaires book offers a simple yet powerful framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. It’s for readers with a baseline level of financial literacy, but doesn’t require a PhD. It fills the gap between personal finance books and the academic literature, bringing the valuable insights of academic finance to non-specialists.
Part One builds the theory of optimal investment sizing from first principles, starting with betting on biased coins. Part Two covers lifetime financial decision-making, with emphasis on the integration of investment, saving and spending decisions. Part Three covers practical implementation details, including how to calibrate your personal level of risk-aversion, and how to estimate the expected return and risk on a broad spectrum of investments.
The book is packed with case studies and anecdotes, including one about Victor’s investment with LTCM as a partner, and a bonus chapter on Liar’s Poker. The authors draw extensively on their own experiences as principals of Elm Wealth, a multi-billion-dollar wealth management practice, and prior to that on their years as arbitrage traders– Victor at Salomon Brothers and LTCM, and James at Nationsbank/CRT and Citadel.
Whether you are young and building wealth, an entrepreneur invested heavily in your own business, or at a stage where your primary focus is investing and spending, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions is your must-have resource for thoughtful financial decision-making.
作者简介 · · · · · ·
Victor Haghani has spent four decades actively involved in markets and financial innovation. He started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers in bond research. He moved to the trading floor in 1986 and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. In 1993, Victor was a cofounding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). He established and co-ran its London office. His participation in the failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing.
Through a careful study of the academic literature on investing and many thought-provoking discussions with friends, colleagues, and investors of all backgrounds, Victor concluded that savers can and should do much better. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help investors, including his own family, manage their savings in a disciplined, research-based, cost-effective manner and to capture the long-term returns they ought to earn.
In his 2013 TEDx talk, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?, Victor shared his perspective on the synthesis of active and passive investing, which forms the basis of the Dynamic Index Investing ® approach offered by Elm Wealth. Over the years, Victor became fascinated with the challenge of making good decisions on broader questions about wealth and personal finances, including sound spending policies, tax decisions, and retirement choices.
Victor was born in New York City in 1962 and grew up in New York, Pennsylvania, Tehran, and London. As an adult, he has resided in New York City and London and, more recently, has been based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Victor graduated from the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1984 with a B.Sc. (economics). He has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature.
Victor has been involved in a variety of other activities, including research and lecturing at the LSE, where he was a senior research associate in the Financial Markets Group, as well as consulting and board assignments and acting as a “name” in the Lloyd’s of London insurance market. He loves the outdoors and is an avid skier, hiker, and fisherman and enjoys taking long walks with his dog Milo. He has always been fascinated by airplanes, flying model ones as a boy and full-size ones as an adult.
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